Sunday, April 14, 2013

Atheist/Skeptic Dialogue, Strand 1, "Robert's Rules of Order" edition

Strand 1 of the Atheist/Skeptic Dialogue is going nowhere fast. People are getting hung up on the definition of satire and the right of reply and a bunch of other crap which seems utterly tangential to me, which apparently means that I've completely missed the subtext of the discussion. Reading the comments at Stephanie's blog it has become clear that Strand 1, at least, is a front in an ongoing war between two (three? four?) factions over moderation fascism and whether it's ok to photoshop someone's head onto a cow (or something). Not interesting. Maybe I'll check in again if/when Strand 2 starts.

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Atheist/Skeptic Dialogue - 2013-04-09 Update

The dialogue is moving slowly. I've written a couple more comments (here and here), but mostly I'm waiting for something interesting to happen. I suppose its good in the long run that they're spacing things out, but so far the give-and-take has been pretty vanilla and hasn't directly addressed any of the various elephants in the room. This seems to be a shared sentiment; folks over at Stephanie's blog are saying the same thing.

I suppose that regardless of what happens this is an interesting experiment. Even if it comes to nought it'll answer a question about the viability of dialogue under rigorous conditions.

Wednesday, April 03, 2013

Atheist Skeptic Dialogue, Round 1

I'm not much given to participating in Internet forums, but the Atheist Skeptic Dialogue touches on a lot of areas that I find interesting so I figured I'd give it a try. I've posted comments in response to both of the opening statements which have, after some delay, made it through the moderation queue. It's interesting to see the modifications that the moderators felt were necessary to keep my comments within the guidelines. My comment on Stephanie Zvan's opening statement orginally contained the following sentence at the end of Item 1:

To pick a recent example, reasonable people may disagree over whether the American Atheists "slavery billboard" (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/13/atheist-slavery-billboard-pennsylvania-raises-tempers_n_1342268.html) advanced the cause of atheism.

which the moderators apparently had some sort of a problem with, given that they removed it and added the note

Mod Note: Moderation team removed an example from the end of (1) in order to keep dialogue within the guidelines.

Not that big a deal, but I specifically added the example in order to conform to guideline 2.a.5 ("Provide sources if asked, or modify (or retract) your claim if unable to do so."). I was honestly expecting that they'd balk at what I said about teleology and moral facts in 4c, given that it was a strong, but unsupported, assertion. I suspect that right now they're primarily moderating/editing for tone, trying to keep unduly inflammatory material out of the discussion too early to keep it from getting derailed.

My comment to Jack Smith's opening statement originally included

Please feel free to strike the following if it is felt to be off-topic:

General criticism: One of the root causes if schism within the skeptical community is disagreement over concepts/definitions, what they mean, and who gets to do the defining. As such, coming to a consensus defintion of terms is a necessary precondition to further progress. For example, we should define the following terms that were referenced in items 1 - 10 above:

  • Ethics
  • Morality
  • Values
  • Equality
  • Justice

I believe that we could also benefit from an explicit enumeration of the core principles of skepticism.

2) Disagree; we should not conflate the "atheist" and "skeptic" communities. Atheism requires nothing more than a disbelief in god(s); one can be an atheist and disagree with the core issues from item 1. By definition, however, one cannot be a skeptic and disagree with these issues. It is true that there is significant overlap between the two groups, but only the skeptic community holds enough core beliefs in common to make discussions fruitful.

They struck all of it. My response to item 2 was pretty tangential, but on reflection I think I should have held my ground on the definitions bit. Guideline 2.a.3 says: "Define words and/or terms when you are asked to do so. Pre-empt such questions by defining, at first use, words already known to raise this question among participants on either 'side' (e.g. 'feminism')."; it seems reasonable that statements should be held to the same standard. I sent a note to the moderators in that regard:

I do think it would greatly improve the general discussion to explicitly tackle definitions. Note that guideline 2(a)3 states "Define words and/or terms when you are asked to do so. Pre-empt such questions by defining, at first use, words already known to raise this question among participants on either “side” (e.g. “feminism”).". If that's what is expect for comments it seems reasonable that Statements be held to the same standard. I recognize the (admirable) desire not to get sidetrack by definitional issues, but I think that disagreements over definitions are part of the core problem the dialogue seeks to address.

It's interesting to see how things are shaping up; here's a quick tally of the responses to date:

Responses To Stephanie Zvan's Opening Statement
ItemAgreeAgree With ReservationsDisagreeOther
163
272
310
4621
54124
6811
7811
891
982
1091
1182
12414
13631
1481
15811
1682

The commentariat tends to agree with most of Stephanie Zvan's opening statement; the "other" comment tends to be requests for clarification or commentary about vagueness. The strongest reaction so far has been to Item 5:

5. According to these people, we may not or we may or we must include religious skepticism under our skeptical umbrella. We may not or we may or we must build friendly working relationships with religious institutions with similar goals. We may not or we may or we must shape our agendas to appeal to groups of people whose relationships to these various issues are very different from the relationships of the white, cisgendered, educated, middle-class to upper-class men who have shaped the traditional concerns of our movements.

Needless to say that last bit about white/cisgendered got people's dander up. It's pretty clear that the moderators are granting significantly more leeway to Statement authors; given what got excised from my own response I expect that sort of language would have been removed from a comment.

Responses to Jack Smith's opening statement
ItemAgreeAgree With ReservationsDisagreeOther
3411
4a5212
4b5311
4c532
4d82
4e5311
5a5112
5b631
5c4221
5d6211
5e541
5f5221
63331
7713
863
963

There's significantly more disagreement regarding Jack Smith's opening statement. My take is that this is due, in part, to the nature of the claims he was asserting; they were a more specific and thus give people more to disagree with. Though, interestingly enough, he seems to have agreement of at least a plurality of commentors on each item.

One thing which I think I was only tangentially aware of is that there are (allegedly) "sides" to this discussion, which seems to me like a gross oversimplification. I have big disagreements with both Jack Smith and Stephanie Zvan; I don't think I belong to either camp. Nor do I see much in the way of evidence of "sides" in terms of the responses of the commentariat. I suspect that there are distinct "sides" in the sense of clusters of viewpoints, but that we haven't gotten deep enough into fundamental differences for those clusters to have reveal themselves.

Sunday, March 03, 2013

Solved: Recreate Minitab Normal Probability Plot in R

I'm taking a stats class where everything is done in Minitab, which is Teh Suck because Minitab only runs on Windows and I No Haz Windows. I've been successfully using R as a substitute, which has turned out to be a non-issue for the most part. However...

Minitab produces a very specific type of probability plot, the "Normal Probability Plot", which has no near-equivalent in R. Thus I embarked on a journey to try to recreate the damn thing. There are lots of threads all over the intertoobs that solve parts of the problem (which turns out to be fairly involved), but I couldn't find anything which puts all the pieces together into a single, ready-made solution. What follows is a pretty close recreation; I just had to move on to the rest of my life before I could get the legend right.

Presented in the hopes that it'll save other people the effort:

minitab_normal_prob_plot <- function(data, x_label) {
   
    # The labels for the y-axis, corresponding to percentiles

    y_axis_labels = c(1,5,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,95,99)

    # Lengths, mean, and sd of data

    n = length(data)
    my_mean = mean(data)
    my_sd = sd(data)

    ### Set up the y-axis values

    # Translate labels to decimal percentages

    percentages = y_axis_labels / 100

    # Convert percentages to z-values and shift so that all values are >= 0

    y_axis_points = qnorm(percentages)
    y_shift = y_axis_points[1]
    y_axis_points = y_axis_points - y_shift

    # The minimum and maximum y values

    y_min = y_axis_points[1]
    y_max = y_axis_points[length(y_axis_points)]

    ### Calculate the main data set
    # x and y values per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_probability_plot.

    x_data_points = sort(data)

    data_percents = c()
    for(i in 1:n) {
        if (i == 1) {
            data_percents[i] = 1 - 0.5^(1/n)
        } else if (i == n) {
            data_percents[i] = 0.5^(1/n)
        } else {
            data_percents[i] = (i - 0.3175)/(n+0.365)
        }
    }

    ### Trend line calculation
    # Project a line represented expected distribution values on assumption
    # that data is normal.

    trend_x0 = qnorm(percentages[1], mean = my_mean, sd = my_sd)
    trend_x1 = qnorm(
            percentages[length(percentages)], mean = my_mean, sd = my_sd
    )

    # Convert percents to z-values and shift as before

    y_data_points = qnorm(data_percents) - y_shift

    ### Set up the envelope
    # Stolen from
    # http://stackoverflow.com/questions/3929611/recreate-minitab-normal-probability-plot

    library(MASS)
    qprobs<-qnorm(percentages)
    fd<-fitdistr(data, "normal") #Maximum-likelihood Fitting of Univariate Dist from MASS
    xp_hat<-fd$estimate[1]+qprobs*fd$estimate[2]  #estimated perc. for the fitted normal
    v_xp_hat<- fd$sd[1]^2+qprobs^2*fd$sd[2]^2+2*qprobs*fd$vcov[1,2] #var. of estimated perc
    xpl<-xp_hat + qnorm(0.025)*sqrt(v_xp_hat)  #lower bound
    xpu<-xp_hat + qnorm(0.975)*sqrt(v_xp_hat)  #upper bound

    ### Set up the x-axis

    x_min = min(c(data, trend_x0, trend_x1, xpl, xpu))
    x_max = max(c(data, trend_x0, trend_x1, xpl, xpu))

    ### Plot it all

    # Data set. Points plotted twice due to keep them from getting clobbered by
    # white rectangle.
    par(bg = "beige")
    plot(
        x_data_points, y_data_points,
        xlim = c(x_min, x_max), ylim = c(y_min, y_max),
        axes = FALSE,
        ylab = "Percent", xlab = x_label,
        pch = 16, col = "red",
        main = paste("Probability Plot of", x_label,"\nNormal - 95% CI")
    )
    rect(par("usr")[1], par("usr")[3], par("usr")[2], par("usr")[4], col = "white")
    points(x_data_points, y_data_points, pch = 16, col = "red")

    # Trend line

    segments(trend_x0, y_min, trend_x1, y_max, col = "blue")

    # Lower and upper bounds

    lines(xpl, y_axis_points, col = "blue")
    lines(xpu, y_axis_points, col = "blue")

    # Y-axis gridlines

    for (i in 1:length(y_axis_points)) {
        abline(h = y_axis_points[i], col = "gray", lty = 2)
    }

    # Axes

    axis(1)
    axis(2, at = y_axis_points, labels = y_axis_labels)

    # Box and x-grid

    box()
    grid(ny = NA, lty = 2)

    # Legend

    legend(
        "topright",
        c(
            paste("Mean", my_mean, sep = " "),
            paste("StDev", my_sd, sep = " ")
        ),
        bg = "white"
    )
}

Sunday, November 04, 2012

Sometimes You Hurt The Ones You Love

I really like the crew at Sadly, No!; they're included on the shortlist of what passes for a blogroll in these parts. But they also exhibit, from time to time, some of the worst traits of knee-jerk progressivism. Which is why it pains me a little to have to do this:

Shorter Tintin, Sadly Not Well Thought Out:
Yglesiatlas Shrugged

  • The gasoline fairy will bring gasoline to all the virtuous people who have nothing more pressing to do than stand in line for hours on end.

Point the first: Contra Tintin, it is not the case that "[w]aiting in line is something everyone can do no matter how much they have in their bank account". There's a positive correlation between wealth and free time, which makes ability to stand in line a weak proxy for wealth. More importantly, however, a person who's stuck in a cold house caring for kids and/or sick relations may have more genuine need1 than a person who lacks such obligations, but only the latter will be able to obtain gasoline. There's no reason to think that willingness/ability to wait in line is a reasonable proxy for need and thus no reason to maintain that allocation of gasoline via queuing is more just than allocation via price.

Point the second: What happens when the local gasoline supply runs out? The queuing method doesn't provide a signal to the wider market that supply should be shifted to address demand; no one is keeping track of queue length or queue time, much less broadcasting that information in an efficient fashion. Allowing people to raise prices, on the other hand, provides an immediate market signal that will cause a shift in gasoline supply from areas of low demand to areas of high demand by virtue of the fact that the suppliers will make more money delivering to the high-demand areas2. History and theory both prove that price ceilings lead to shortages which, in turn, lead to other things like black markets and crime.

In closing:

  • Substituting "free time" for "money" doesn't guarantee a more just outcome.
  • Market-based pricing mechanisms have lots of beneficial properties which queue-based mechanisms lack.
  • Theory and history give good cause to think that price ceilings are counterproductive.
  • For the love of god stop and think for 30 seconds before opening your mouth.

1 However you choose to define it. The fact that it's hard (or impossible, depending on how pessimistic you are) to do so objectively is part of the problem, but I'm not going to get into that here.
2 Recognizing that there are complications here because gasoline delivery may be controlled by long-term contracts rather than spot prices. But this observation is absolutely true for other commodities like ice and bottled water which are delivered almost exclusively on the basis of short-term pricing.

Saturday, November 03, 2012

Ok, I Voted For Obama, Now What?

Update: Synchronicity. The problem is the system; everything else is just a symptom.


I said I was going to stay away, but there are too many people wrong on the Internet. Today's ire is directed at all the gazillions of people who are saying "Vote for Obama, because Romney is worse".

Ok, fine, I get it... voting for Obama might be the best way to minimize damage in the short run. But what about the long game? If you acknowledge that all the viable candidates produced by the two party system are shitty, then shouldn't you also be pushing for electoral reform so that people who don't suck ass have the opportunity to at least participate in the frickin' debates?

Hello... <crickets>... thought so.

Look... go read this old Glenn Greenwald piece about the masochism of the Democratic base. The Democratic Party knows that, as things stand now, they can fuck us seven ways till Sunday and we'll still vote for them because they'll at least give us the reach-around now and again. We won't get anything meaningful or substantive from them until such time as they have to worry about us voting for someone else, which will be never if the "hold your nose and vote for Obama" crowd has its way.

So all y'all who want me to vote for the lesser of two evils: Come back when you have a plan to fix the electoral system and maybe I'll listen. Taking your advice, sans a push for electoral reform, amounts to kicking the can down the road; we'll be having this same discussion all over again in 2016.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Gaus' "The Order Of Public Reason"

Let me start by saying that The Order Of Public Reason, or something quite like it, is the book I would have hoped to write had I decided to go into philosophy. I don't know that it's going to rise to the level of A Theory of Justice (only time will tell there), but it really is an amazing work which I hope will become part of the canon. Gaus' ability to synthesize a huge number of topics into a single, coherent system really cannot be understated.

Given the effusive praise above it should be obvious that I'm generally in agreement with what Gaus' has to say. The main difference, I think, is that I'm a lot less optimistic about the outcome than he is when all is said and done. So, rather than try to summarize and comment on the entirety of the book I'm instead going to focus on those areas where we diverge or where I have other salient commentary.

I'd like to start with Gaus' discussion of instrumental morality. This section, by itself, makes the entire book worthwhile just by virtue of its (seemingly) definitive treatment of the subject. People who are more well-versed than I in these things may find reason to object, but it looks to me like Gaus makes a solid case that instrumental rationality does not lead to anything resembling a comprehensive morality.

The basic argument is that people have reasons to follow the rules when they can be reasonably assured that they will be detected and punished. Repeated rulebreakers will suffer future harm as well because their reputation will cause people to be less likely to interact with them. However, as societies become more diffuse these reputational effects diminish to the point where they're effectively non-existent. For example, he talks about the relatively tight knit group of (100k or so) Chaldeans in Detroit and how they find it difficult to track individual reputations directly, relying instead on proxies like family name (pp. 92-93). The United States as a whole has long since surpassed the point where such individual attribution is possible, which blows a big whole in instrumentalist theories.

As a tangential note I have to say that I ultimately find discussions of instrumentalism to be a little unsatisfying. It would be great if some variant thereof worked, since it would address all sorts of problems regarding secular morality, but at the same time it almost seems like its missing the point. The success of the various flavors of instrumentalism, to the extent that they work at all, is based on a happenstance alignment of our pre-existing intuitions regarding morality with the utilitarian calculation of "what's in it for me?". For example, Daniel Fincke's answer to the question of why murder is wrong is that it constrains the potential excellence of the murderer. This raises two issues:

  • "Ought"-less morality: Instrumentalism's strength is that it doesn't rely on "oughts"/"ought nots", only an individual's rational calculation of eir own welfare. Is a system without any "oughts" "moral" in the typical sense of the word?
  • Why is it important for murder to be "bad"? Instrumentalists go out of their way to show that various and sundry anti-social behaviors (murder, rape, theft, etc.) are off-limits. The fact that they care at all indicates that they acknowledge a pre-existing list of "bads" which must be addressed. Rather than trying to show that an instrumentalism theory covers all these bases wouldn't it be more efficient to cut to the chase and figure out where that list comes from?

Gaus addresses the latter observation in his discussion of the "moral emotions". For Gaus, the whole purpose of social morality is to allow individuals to co-exist as a society, which goes a very long way towards explaining why murder is bad: Societies with rampant murder very quickly cease to function. However, there's a really big disconnect between this observation and the system of public morality which he develops over the course of the book.

Gaus' linchpin observation is that individuals internalize social norms, leading to the moral emotions of guilt (experience by rule breakers) and indignation (experience by people who detect the rule breaking). This system, having evolved over a long time, is very good at (and perhaps even indispensable for) ensuring social stability:

Our current moral practice is made intelligible and sensible once we understand that human society depends on a social morality based on Rule-following Punishers. For such a system to have arisen, we must care about the moral actions of others, care about making demands on them, and hold that we have standing to make these demands. (p. 193)

Which is absolutely true. However, the evolved morality of Rule-following Punishers is also demonstrably irrational (in the sense of being logically incoherent) and regularly beats down people who deviate from the status quo. What if humanity has managed to evolve itself into a stable, but ultimately unjust, morality? To his credit Gaus recognizes this conundrum:

Still, the worry gnaws: have we simply landed in a confused practice that we cannot reason ourselves out of? That may be a recipe for despair rather than contented resignation, much less justification. We not only wish to know where we have landed but to have some reassurance that it is a destination worth arriving at, and not the result of being marooned with no hope of rescue. (p. 193)

Unfortunately, Gaus doesn't ever confront that question head-on. Rather, his answer to the problem seems to be that we merely need to internalize rules based on the principle that all persons are free and equal and then the moral emotions will do the rest:

Once a society of free and equal persons has coordinated on specific moral rules and their interpretation, the point of invoking moral authority is to police this equilibrium selection against "trembling hands" - individuals who make mistakes about what rule is in equilibrium - and those who otherwise fail to act on their best reasons. In these cases the overwhelming social opinion concurs in criticizing deviant behavior. An individual who violates the social equilibrium will not simply be able to check demands on her, for she will meet the same demand form almost all others. In Mill's terms, the deviant will not simply confront the opinion of other individuals but the judgment of "society." This, I shall argue, renders decentralized authority effective in inducing compliance with social morality. (pp. 47 - 48)

Color me skeptical. "Don't steal" is a very concrete prohibition; it's easy for the moral emotions to come into in such situations, for people to feel indignant or guilty as appropriate. "All persons are free and equal", by contrast, is highly abstract, which makes its interpretation and enforcement an intellectual exercise. It might be the case that the "specific moral rules" on which we have coordinated are sufficiently concise and clear-cut as to accurately trigger the moral emotions, but I'll need a lot more convincing in that regard.

This is the first place where I think the edifice that he has so painstakingly constructed starts to fall apart. Because he places an emphasis on the practical, lubricating aspects of social morality, it is necessary for him to endorse a system of moral reasoning which is readily accessible to the bulk of the populace:

As Baier says, social morality is for everybody. Such weak publicity is absolutely essential for the rules of social morality ot perform their job of coordinating a mutually beneficial social existence. Rules that are too complex to be reliably taught to children could not be followed by the population in general. A social morality composed of abstract principles that required sophisticated philosophical reasoning to be applied simply cannot form the basis of a shared public morality; neither could a social morality that required sophisticated case-by-case moral judgment. Perhaps such moral theories apply to some aspects of moral discourse, but insofar as the cognitive demands far outstrip the abilities of normal moral agents, they cannot provide the framework of our shared social existence. (p. 296)

Then he turns around and acknowledeges that there are "better" moral reasoners:

But better moral reasoners may be able to extend reasoning in ways that others cannot. For example, it is widely agreed today that a person with a normal concern for her own welfare and values could not be expected to care for a rule that, say, enslaved her, and so such a rule could never generate a justified internal ought for her: it could not be a binding moral rule... A better moral reasoner, though, may point out that the same considerations show that the slave cannot be bound to show that a similarly reasonable person cannot be bound by an oppressive property regime. Such people may serve us all as moral critics and reformers; they do not disqualify the rest of us from being competent moral agents. (p. 217)

There is an apparent tension between Gaus' desire to democratize moral reasoning and his recognition that there are better ways to reason, so it's worth a detour to consider what precisely Gaus means by "better". He endorses, with caveats, Kohlberg's six-stage model (pp. 214 - 217), and talks approvingly of "post-conventional" reasoners at several points. However, a criticism that can be levied against Kohlberg, Gaus, and moral philosophers in general (which I do not necessarily think is valid) is that post-conventional reasoning is the secular equivalent of asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, a fancy language game that has nothing to do with right or wrong. Why, then, should we equate "more sophisticated" with "better"? Gaus never addresses this objection directly, perhaps coming closest in the following passage:

Kohlberg hypothesized that these stages form a universally invariant sequence of increasing cognitive sophistication; higher stages were more adequate than lower stages, providing solutions to issues left unresolved by lower stages. (p. 216)

Whether he fully explains himself or not is beside the point; my main purpose for this digression is to establish that he's using the term "better" in the way that it is typically understood. Furthermore, this "betterness" is (mostly) objective rather than subjective, being characterized by a fuller, more competent assessment of the pertinent facts and their implications in any given situation. So my question to Gaus is, if post-conventional reasoning is objectively better than that displayed by the typical individual, shouldn't we grant post-conventional reasoning/reasoners more weight in those situations where they have the superior argument?

I honestly don't know what to make of this, because it seems to be a glaring and obvious contradiction. To recognize a superior mode of reasoning, but then to deny it any formal weight, seems manifestly irrational. Ultimately this may be a symptom of Gaus' aversion to charges of moral authoritarianism (pp. xv - xvi); to give formal weight to post-conventional reasoning would allow some people to dictate the terms of social morality to others. But if this weight derives from better application of the rules of logic, rules which Gaus is quite happy to invoke elsewhere, then it is hard to see how this complain can stand.

More likely, I think, is that Gaus has a vision of what he hopes a just world would look like, and is glossing over those bits that make his vision less plausible. He would like to see a "Great Society" (p. 268) of free-and-equal individuals who converge on principles of social morality which all can endorse. However, there are at least two other major conflicts, apart from the problem I just described above, inherent in Gaus' system:

  1. "All persons are free and equal" is not a widely-accepted principle.
  2. Obtaining universal asset to any rule at the level of the Great Society seems impossible.

With respect to the first point: A significant fraction of the American public, perhaps a plurality or even a majority, have not and never will internalize the concept that all persons are free and equal in the manner which Gaus requires. I'm not just talking about supremacists of various stripes, but rather the ordinary citizens who collectively form the foundation of society. They may pay the it lip service, but deep down in their hearts they still regard their own judgments as superior to that of others. These individuals are not "committed to the moral enterprise and treating others as free and equal" (p. 282) and thus "our moral relations with such people [are] transformed into the relations that obtain between us and those who are not capable of moral autonomy" (p. 283). Consistently applying the rules that Gaus has laid out would result in the widespread exclusion of individuals from moral society; this does not appear to be his intent, but it seems to be an unavoidable result.

As for the second point: I think that his fundamental approach to the issue is correct, I'm just less sanguine than he is about the result. Gaus requires universal assent to any moral rule:

The socially eligible set, then, consists in all those proposals that are unanimously ranked by all Members of the Public as strictly preferred to blameless liberty - this is, rules that all have reasons to endorse as authoritative. We thus must eliminate as a possible moral rule among "citizens of the realm of ends" any proposed moral rule that is in the ineligible set of any Member of the Public. (p. 322)

This, by itself, would not be a problem if there were any sort of restrictions on the constitution of the ineligible set. However, consider the example of a "strictly unacceptable" proposal which Gaus provides on p. 311:

Given the plural basis of the parties' deliberation, we cannot preclude that Alf, some other Member of the Public, will advance proposals that Betty finds objectionable in this way. To be sure, given that all are reasoning on the basis of evaluative standards that all accept as relevant to moral deliberation, and further that all Members of the Public hold that their proposals conform to the formal constraints on moral rules, there will not be out-and-out dictatorial, selfish, or manifestly oppressive proposals. Yet their differences in evaluative standards can still lead some to propose moral rules that others find strictly unacceptable. For example, when deliberating about rules concerning freedom of religion, Alf may sincerely propose (w) a rule of freedom of thought and exercise, though with an obligation to support (at least financially) a single national Church, on the grounds that this will promote community spirit and dampen sectarian conflicts. As an adherent of a particular faith, Betty may insist that such a rule is strictly unacceptable.

If proposals may be offered and rejected on religious (i.e. fundamentally untestable) grounds then there seem to be essentially no constraints on the contents of the ineligible set. Thus, as more Members of the Public are introduced it becomes more and more likely that any given proposal put forward will be found in some Member's ineligible set and thus must be removed from the socially eligible set. It seems a virtual certainty to me that the socially empty set will become empty well before we reach a Public representative of the population of the United States. Gaus recognizes this as a possibility, but doesn't have much in the way of a rejoinder:

We cannot exclude the possibility that an interpretation may be strictly unacceptable to some Members of the Public (Betty may certainly have sever doubts about Charlie's Freudian proposal). A proposal might, in the opinion of a Member of the Public, be such a bad interpretation of the abstract right of freedom of speech that it does hardly anything to secure the core interests and concerns of agency that are being interpreted, or else it severely and unnecessarily attacks her own evaluative standards. This certainly should not be a commonplace, since all are devoted to these core interests and all agree that it is of the first importance that the basic claims of agency be secured. To end up with a null set of eligible interpretations would be a moral disaster for the agency of all. And we must remember that the constraints on proposals still apply, including reversibility and the weak common good requirements (§15.2). Members of the Public are thus confronted by a set of socially optimal eligible interpretations of an abstract justified right, just as they were confronted by a socially optimal eligible set of possible rules, x, y, z. We have compelling reasons to think that the set would be neither null nor a singleton.

I call bullshit; Gaus has given nothing in the way of "compelling reasons" to think that, given a large enough group, the socially eligible set will be anything other than null.

This isn't a fatal blow to his theory as a whole, but it really does crimp his aspirations to a social morality which operates on a grand scale. Taking the US as an example, I expect that the application of his method would lead to rapid fragmentation into largely-autonomous sub-communities bound together at the "top" by little more than realpolitik. Consider the following, fundamentally-irreconcilable divisions:

  • Archists vs. minarchists vs. anarchists
  • Naturalists/materialists/atheists vs. theists
  • People committed to the proposition that "All persons are free and equal" vs. people who think that's liberal bilge.

And so on. Which goes back to Nozick's observation that, given reasonable diversity of opinion, the will not be a single Utopia but rather utopias. The search for one social morality to rule them all may be fundamentally misguided.

Now, since this may be the last blog post I write for awhile (or, perhaps, ever), I want to end on a personal note. Gaus has neatly encapsulated a lot of the ideas that I've had that have caused me to take up the mantle of libertarianism. The fundamental intuition is that we cannot prove the truthfulness of moral rules and, thus, cannot foist them on other people without their consent. This standard, combined with the reality of evaluative diversity, means that there will not be one monolithic, "just" society. Rather, societies will form spontaneously when enough individuals with enough overlapping concerns get together. The boundaries of theses societies, and the sub-societies (and sub-sub-societies and so on) of which they are comprised, will be defined by this sphere of common concern and its associated commitment to a shared set of norms.

What I believe this means in practice is that any nation state which makes a pretense of being just (provided that such a state is even possible) will necessarily have a very lightweight set of rules that cover "the basics" (don't murder, don't steal, etc.) and not much else. Further rules are certainly possible, but the scope of their application must be narrowed in order to obtain the requisite level of acquiescence. Ultimately:

Do not do unto others what you would not have them do to you.
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